Managerial Evaluation of Sales Forecasting Effectiveness: A MIMIC Modelling Approach

Author(s)
Adamantios Diamantopoulos, Heidi M Winklhofer
Abstract

A Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model is developed in which managerial evaluations of forecasting effectiveness are modeled as a function of different forecast performance criteria, namely, accuracy, bias, timeliness and cost. The model is estimated using data from a survey of export sales forecasting practices and several hypotheses linking the aforementioned criteria on effectiveness are tested. The findings indicate that evaluations of forecasting effectiveness are equally influenced by short-term accuracy and absence of overestimating bias, while timely delivery of the forecast to management is somewhat less important. Long-term accuracy, underestimation and timing of production of the forecast are not found to impact on effectiveness. Implications of the results for forecasting practice are considered and future research directions identified. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Organisation(s)
Department of Accounting, Innovation and Strategy
External organisation(s)
University of Nottingham
Journal
International Journal of Research in Marketing
Volume
19
Pages
151-166
No. of pages
16
ISSN
0167-8116
Publication date
2002
Peer reviewed
Yes
Austrian Fields of Science 2012
5020 Economics
Portal url
https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/34b48a01-18d3-446f-8cb6-e325616f9435